What Finland’s election result could mean for UK-EU relations
Sunday’s election in Finland marked the end of the internationally respected Sanna Marin premiership. Her tenure ends with its head held high after steering Finland through the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent NATO membership bid.
Coalition negotiations will be trying, with the possibility of a Sweden-style right leaning coalition or a more liberal anti-populist bloc. What is clear is that it will be led by Finland’s National Coalition Party (NCP) who took their highest share of votes and seats in 16 years.
Whilst many fundamentals will stay the same Finland can expect a pro-business government focused on reducing the national debt, collaboration with the EU and NATO membership.
NATO membership is the second big shift for Finland this week with accession on 4th April marking the end of 75 years of military neutrality.
The change in public perception since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is striking. Support for membership surged last year to 62% in March then 76% in May (Yle, 2022). Prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine a majority of Finns had long opposed membership.
These significant events mean will have an impact on both UK-Finnish and UK-EU relations.
With a comparatively modest GDP but now a more significant player geopolitically Finland and the wider Nordic nations maintain strong links with the UK, underpinned by a like minded outlook on free trade and open markets, as often showcased at the Northern Futures Forum.
Like the wider Nordics, Finland will continue to be cooperative in its relationship with the EU. The ruling NCP may find scope to work more closely with the UK in areas such as ensuring an aligned Emissions Trading Scheme, advancing digital trade, defending the international rules based system at the WTO and championing a liberal approach to trade.
The UK should utilise this, considering its need to make friends and build alliances ahead of the TCA review in 2026. The review offers a real opportunity for meaningful reform and where appropriate closer alignment; this will need Member State support.
Rejoining Horizon, liberalising mobility and further alignment on standards are some examples of what can be achieved in a spirit of collaboration, openness and shared values. Finland and the wider Nordics will be crucial allies in this effort.
The leader of Finland's NCP and next Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, has often spoken of his willingness to engage with the UK, noting that “Finland and the UK are close allies and defenders of a rules-based world order.”
The NCP are very much a pro-European party and have had a pro-NATO stance since 2006. Their victory is in many ways an expression of trust in the long term strategy they represent.
Defence will be a uniquely strong point in an improved UK-EU relationship. The UK should seize this moment to engage with the new Government, particularly on defence, Russia and Ukraine.
Post Brexit the UK-Finland, like the wider UK-EU relationship, was distant and exhibited a lack of trust. The UK was viewed as a difficult partner, with Brexit adding to the EU’s headaches of managing a fractious US relationship, tariff wars and growing Chinese influence. The UK’s political turmoil and unhelpful rhetoric did not go down well and it made what should be non-contentious areas of diplomacy difficult.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine expedited change in the UK-EU and UK-Finnish relationship almost overnight and placed the UK’s military clout in the spotlight. UK commitment to the Joint Expeditionary Force, followed by Boris Johnson’s visit to Finland and subsequent signing of the mutual security pact went a huge way in repairing at least some of the damage.
With Finland now in NATO (and in all likelihood Sweden too) the UK and Finland are legally and strategically closer. This should be built upon. Beyond the TCA review there is a need for a new partnership, underpinned by a political impetus in which defence could be key.
The UK and EU could use defence collaboration as a foundation on which to build a more interconnected relationship. The EU has taken steps in this direction in light of the Ukraine crisis.
It recently allowed the UK to join its military mobility project – PESCO – allowing easier transportation of troops and equipment across Europe. Initially the EU demanded the signing of a defence and security treaty before collaboration in this field but Russia's invasion of Ukraine necessitated more flexibility and paved the way for closer cooperation.
There are opportunities to go further, for example by further UK buy in to the E3 format (a diplomatic coalition of the UK, France and Germany) which continues as a forum for discussion between the three countries on foreign policy strategy and has been vocal on issues such as deterring Iran’s expansion of its nuclear programme.
The European Intervention Initiative (tasked with quickly deploying troops in crisis scenarios near Europe's borders) which the UK participates in and the possible creation of a European Security Council offer opportunities for the UK to retain influence in the EU through its participation, laying the basis for closer UK-EU ties.
Grasping the new political dynamics in the Nordics and making the most of the strengths of new defence partnerships together have the potential to show that the UK is very much still part of Europe and serious about an improved TCA, clearing the way for a closer, structured and values based partnership.
With the right approach not only could the UK partly heal over a very difficult few years but in addition could forge a more fruitful and cooperative relationship that makes a real difference to geopolitical and economic security and which opens the door to new possibilities for the future relationship.
Alex Wright
Alex Wright is Research Director at the Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations.